A tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea might reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week when conditions might be more favorable for tropical development, the National Hurricane Center said Friday afternoon.
"Disorganized cloudiness" and showers from the wave from Hispaniola to the Leeward Islands are expected to spread westward and bring enhanced rainfall to those areas. Over the next five days the chance of tropical development has remained consistent at 10 percent.
A tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea might reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week when conditions might be more favorable for tropical dev…
Keep those umbrellas handy this weekend.
"Strong upper-level winds will prevent any development of this system during the next 2 to 3 days, but environmental conditions could become less hostile when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week," said the National Hurricane Center in its Friday update.
The NHC is also monitoring "potential tropical cyclone six," which has become better defined in the Atlantic near the coast of Africa. The system has a 90 percent chance for formation within the next 48 hours, but its projected track is not expected to approach the Gulf of Mexico.
In early July, forecasters revised projections, saying this year's hurricane season might be less destructive than they previously thought, and it may even be a below-average showing.
In April, conditions looked ripe for a particularly strong hurricane season, wrote a team from Colorado State University, which each year prepares long-term outlooks. The next month, the National Hurricane Center also warned coastal residents to prepare for an active season.
CSU dropped the chances that many tropical systems will form before the season ends Nov. 30. They're forecasting 10 named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane, which is a Category 3 or higher.
"The tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months have increased," wrote forecast authors Philip Klotzbach and Michael Bell.
Keim said Louisianians need to be diligent, as the state's been struck by devastating storms even in quiet years: Audrey in 1957, Camille in 1969 and Andrew in 1992 all immediately came to mind.